In economics, a supercycle refers to an extended period of booming demand, elevating the prices of commodities and assets to unprecedented heights. It can stretch across years, even decades, and is driven by substantial and sustained structural changes in the economy. My colleagues and I believe we are in the midst of a technology supercycle. This wave of innovation is so potent and pervasive that it promises to reshape everything from the intricacies of global supply chains to the minutiae of daily habits, from the corridors of power in global politics to the unspoken norms that govern our social interactions.

Driving this seismic shift are the titans of technology and three of their inventions: artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology and a burgeoning ecosystem of interconnected wearable devices for people, pets and objects. As they converge, these three macro tech segments will redefine our relationship with everything, from our pharmacists to our animals, from banks to our own bodies.

In the Future Today Institute’s most recent Tech Trends Report, our research is presented across 16 technology- and industry-specific sections that reveal the current state of play and influencers to watch, along with detailed examples and recommendations designed to help executives and their teams develop their strategic positioning. The trends span evolutionary advancements in well-established technologies to groundbreaking developments at the forefront of technological and scientific exploration.

When all 16 sections converge, the trends reveal a compounding effect as reverberating aftershocks influence every other area of technology and science, as well as all industries. Importantly, it is the convergence that matters. In isolation, trends offer limited foresight into the future. Instead, the interplay of these trends is what reveals long-term change. For that reason, organizations must not only remain vigilant in monitoring these evolving trends but also in cultivating strategic foresight — the ability to anticipate future changes and plan for various scenarios.

In this article I will present a few of the most important trends in five areas. For those who want to read the Tech Trends Report in its entirety, it can be downloaded here.

Artificial intelligence (AI)

While the hype continues, now is the time to prepare. AI is a transformative, general-purpose technology (GPT) with the potential to influence entire economies and alter society. From multi-modal AI to self-improving agents and wearables with onboard assistants, the ecosystem is rapidly changing. While AI advancements promise to reshape our world, emerging trends highlight unprecedented risks, underscoring the need for preparedness, governance and alignment. Likely near-term developments include:

Commoditization of general purpose models. Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT are becoming widely accessible and integral to app development. As these models become ubiquitous and cost-effective, akin to cloud services, their adoption will standardize across industries, diminishing their role as a competitive differentiator.

Large reasoning models. Vertically integrated solutions will garner a higher transactional value. Some companies will win by providing a refined/value-added LLM product to the end consumer and meeting the customer in desired distribution channels, such as LLMs for healthcare, legal, finance and architecture.

Adoption of natural language interfaces. The evolution towards natural language interfaces will soon diminish the reliance on traditional graphic user interfaces. This shift will enable more intuitive interactions with computers using everyday language. This transition may also influence device form factors, potentially leading to an increase in wearables and the development of AI-specific devices and operating systems centred on LLMs.

Talent shift. Expect a significant talent crunch as top innovators depart major tech giants like Google, OpenAI and Meta to launch their own ventures, ranging from conversational agents to AI-first biotech firms, signalling a broad diversification and specialization within the AI sector.

Consolidation. Consolidation will persist, building on moves like Microsoft’s increased investment in OpenAI for Bing, aimed at capturing market share from Google search. Similar strategies by major tech companies are anticipated.

Increased enterprise adoption of AI. The current macroeconomic environment is driving leaders to view AI as essential for growth, foreshadowing increased enterprise adoption despite the potential for making some job categories obsolete.

Web3

While the industry has reeled from recent failures and bankruptcies, developers have continued to develop new capabilities and features, moving ever closer to real-life practical applications for Web3. As regulations are on the horizon to be implemented, we will likely see Web3 move from the experimental and theoretical to cold hard business cases.

With many of the technological limitations of blockchain having been resolved or reduced, adoption is the next hurdle for blockchain technology and crypto markets. Many forces are driving and limiting this, and the speed of adoption will depend on the intersection and final outcomes of these forces. The industry is seeing promising signs of interest and adoption from traditional industry players. However, major roadblocks like regulation persist, and these factors are largely out of the hands of the crypto industry. Likely near-term developments include:

Enshrined account abstraction. Account abstraction will provide flexibility in account setup via smart contracts. This will give users easier routes to maintain self-custody of tokens — more akin to account management in Web2.

Globally successful Web3 games. Web3 gaming is a distributed process where games are hosted on the blockchain, making them unhackable. With no single point of failure, blockchain-based gaming relies on voting consensus to modify the gaming process and is equally accessible to all the players engaged on the network. The video game industry is years into the creation of top titles that have blockchain built into the core of the gameplay. The similarities of these games to titles gamers are familiar with, combined with new ways to play, should attract crypto natives and Web2 gamers.

Tokenized asset network adoption. Traditional global financial players are working on private blockchains to facilitate the transfer of tokenized financial assets, which are quicker to transfer and settle and help companies avoid the regulatory and security concerns of public networks.

Verifying AI output. AI models are sowing online discord. Deepfakes and misinformation are major issues for political elections and online interaction. Zero-knowledge cryptography could enable verifiable online content and remove the distrust behind content consumed online.

Crypto doubles down in Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, crypto is more than a ‘nice-to-have’; it’s a financial necessity. A mix of financial instability and demographics in this region have led to the quiet adoption of crypto payments, which will lead to a greater industry focus in the region.

Mobility, robots and drones

Consumers are adapting to electric and semi-autonomous vehicles and those that collect increasing data. At the same time, battery technology is advancing, enabling vehicles, robots and drones to perform longer. The rise of these machines suggests a future where they supplement and replace human tasks, highlighting a shift towards a more efficient, increasingly monitored work environment.

In the immediate future, a wave of transformative development is poised to reshape our world across various domains. From the continued integration of connectivity in automobiles — fueling advanced driver assistance systems and enriched in-car experiences — to the pressing challenges facing our electrical grids as we pivot towards an all-electric future and the changing regulatory landscapes impacting drones and autonomous systems, these developments underscore the dynamic nature of technological progress. Collectively, they signify an era of both challenge and opportunity, where adaptability and forward-thinking will be key to navigating the disruptive forces of technology. Likely near-term developments include:

Increased connectedness. Automobiles are only becoming more connected, which will impact advanced driver assistance systems as well as infotainment within the cabin. Automobiles will be less isolating as drivers and passengers seamlessly expand how they connect to their lives outside of the car.

Supply chain disruptions persist. Even as the supply of vehicles and chips for robotics stabilizes, manufacturers and sellers should still brace for continued supply chain disruptions. Additionally, ‘chip nationalism’ and other geopolitical factors will threaten supplies of goods.

Viability of drone traffic management. The escalating use of drones and eVTOLs [electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft] has necessitated advanced traffic management solutions. As various regions have put measures in place, the viability of ubiquitous drone use will be determined in the short term.

Challenges to the grid. As we idealistically transition to an all- electric future, many have speculated our electrical grids will not be able to handle this adjustment. Others are more optimistic. In time, we will have more certainty.

New modalities for robotics. Researchers have developed many innovative modalities for robotics and drones, seeking inspiration from various sources. This innovation will continue, with unexpected inspiration from nature or animals, and some systems will incorporate several different modalities in their designs.

Healthcare and medicine

The merging of the digital and biological worlds enables a whole new range of treatments — the most exciting being cells within our bodies that can actually produce medication in response to external stimuli. Conversely, ‘cyber-bio-malware’ could create new, existential threats to our health that we are unaware we need to protect ourselves against. Both developments have the potential to upend the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries completely.

The healthcare system is battling with increased needs for services, a rise in costs, disruption of supply chains because of geopolitical tensions and an uptick in diseases based on worsening climate conditions. Technology is coming to the rescue, but it can only accomplish so much. A fractured data landscape, lack of infrastructure and a lack of data ownership and sharing regulation make timely solutions unrealistic. On the other hand, increasingly sophisticated patients, thanks to powerful sensors on smart devices, are actively taking charge of their own health. As expectations for quality care rise with such patients, medical professionals need to deliver an all-encompassing, holistic approach to their services.

Rising consumer expectations. Consumers have increased access to information about their health, which will affect their expectations of routine examinations. Professional insights must exceed and incorporate the information available to the consumer directly, or services will be viewed as superfluous.

New stakeholder ecosystems. When healthcare moves to the consumer through smart devices or medical services administered in the home, new service needs that mimic those typically provided in a hospital will arise. These could be digital (data analysis) or physical (food delivery, care, etc.).

Decreased care access and quality. Healthcare systems are already struggling to provide sufficient care, especially in rural regions. Telemedicine offers potential support, but these areas often lack the required digital infrastructure and medical personnel to reach them.

Fighting misinformation. The increased amounts of AI-generated content will continue to challenge sharing accurate health communication.

Novel health threats. As the effects of climate change worsen, disease patterns will change globally. Respiratory illnesses will increase in areas exposed to smoke from wildfires and vector- borne diseases could emerge in regions with rising temperatures.

Fight for patient data. Sensors from consumer-facing smart devices are becoming more precise and increasing the type of biological information they can collect. Health care providers need to ensure that they can access that data to provide adequate services to their patients.

Financial services and insurance

Modernization is slow, but consumers are ready to run. Dominated by legacy giants, the financial services sector is facing a critical juncture where embracing technology like open banking, digital identity and blockchain is not just advantageous but imperative. This industry must shift from reactive to proactive, underscoring the importance of anticipation and preparedness in navigating the future of the financial and insurance industries.

Financial institutions and insurance providers have spent years experimenting, pondering and investigating new and influential technologies. To a great extent, the volatile market of the last several years created an optimal environment for thinking rather than doing. But new and emerging AI standards, scaled CBDCs [central bank digital currencies] and forthcoming stablecoin regulations mark this as a time of action. If financial institutions and insurance providers leverage this opportunity to make real progress on their technological investments, this could be an inflection point for them. Likely near-term developments include:

Inflation remains steady. While interest rate cuts will help maintain stability, rising housing and rental costs have put upward pressure on inflation, making it a space to watch.

AI standards development. Top tech firms are participating in a joint effort led by the U.S. Department of Commerce to create standards around the safe use of AI. The outcomes will likely inform how banks and insurance companies use the tech.

CBDCS launch. Countries with CBDCs include Jamaica and the Bahamas, while China, India, Brazil, Singapore and many others continue to test and prepare to launch them. The Bank of Canada has committed to carrying out further stakeholder consultations on key aspects of a digital Canadian dollar but notes that the decision to adopt a CBDC in Canada would ultimately be made by the Canadian Parliament. While the scale and maturity of the efforts vary, the next year should serve as a proving ground for whether CBDCs work "in the wild."

Technology investment. A recent survey showed that 92 per cent of banks plan to increase technology spending in the coming year. This investment will likely focus on data and AI, leading to strategic hires in specific areas of expertise. Hopefully, these investments will be practical and not experimental.

Stablecoin regulation. On April 17, 2024, two U.S. Senators introduced proposed legislation to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins. The bipartisan Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoin Act seeks to promote responsible innovation and preserve U.S. dollar dominance, while protecting consumers and digital asset market participants.

Energy and climate

Two opposing forces will make the corporate landscape highly volatile and unpredictable. On the one hand, active regulatory bodies, scaling of renewable energy production and increased investment in innovation that aims to solve the remaining bottlenecks will require and empower corporations to integrate sustainability in ways not imaginable just a few years ago. On the other hand, economic headwinds might lead consumers to prioritize affordability over sustainability, and escalating geopolitical tensions could strain the supply chain, increase the price of raw materials and hinder collaboration in research — slowing down innovation. Near-term developments could include:

Price over ethics. Ongoing cost-of-living concerns mean consumers might put affordability above climate considerations, at least when it comes to their wallets. This will put additional strain on business owners, as they determine how to adjust for climate demands.

Rethinking supply chains. Governments are expanding their requirements for reliable and consistent reporting of direct and indirect emissions (Scope 1, 2 and 3), putting pressure on corporations to curate their vendor networks and on the vendors to ensure their operations are still profitable under increased standards.

From early bird to night owl. Excessive heat is impacting daily lives around the globe, forcing people to stay indoors during the day and only leave their homes in the evening. As these ‘heat phases’ expand, industries dependent on people’s physical presence will have to rethink operations as habits and timing of activities shift.

Shifts in mobility. More and more people, at least in Europe, are committing to not use air travel. The resulting smaller spheres of mobility could lead to an increased need for companies to have local hubs, especially as the terms of remote work are still being negotiated.

Accountability changes. The resolution of a number of upcoming court cases will begin to determine government and corporate responsibility for climate change. If verdicts fall on the side of holding institutions responsible, we could see fundamental changes in how climate is addressed.

Climate upskilling. With climate regulation expanding and evolving and climate technology innovation accelerating (thanks to AI) and scaling, companies need to make sure they have the necessary know-how in-house to understand and monitor relevant developments.

As the technology supercycle continues to unfurl, there will be victors and vanquished — those who seize the reins of this epochal change and those who are swallowed whole by it. For business leaders, investors and policymakers alike, the more aspects of the supercycle that are understood and accounted for, the better. The bottom line is that our world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and this supercycle has only just begun.

This article originally appeared in the Winter 2025 issue of the Rotman Management Magazine. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to the magazine or to the Rotman Insights Hub bi-weekly newsletter.