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Rotman Insights Hub | University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management

Why isn't Canada in a recession and what does it mean for our long-term prosperity?

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Walid Hejazi

In 2022 and 2023, banks, economists, think tanks and the media were convinced a recession was imminent. The Central Bank of Canada was on its most rapid rate hike cycle in nearly 30 years, the yield curve had inverted, and other indicators portended a recession was likely. It wasn't a positive time: inflation continued to eat at Canadian's wallets, and despite more than $300 billion in government stimulus injected into the economy, people are feeling the financial pinch.

But the job market is still hot, GDP continues to eke out a growth, and economists and pundits are increasingly open to the idea that the BOC pulled off what was once thought impossible: taming inflation through raised rates, without the associated recession. 

Professor Walid Hejazi joined the Rotman Executive Summary to explore why we haven't tipped into a recession yet, why our government's growing debt load — which grew by more than $350 billion since the start of the pandemic — means policy makers probably aren't focusing on the right problems, and what we might actually be able to do about it. 

Join us next month as we chat with professor Francesco Bova about quantum computing, and why businesses should probably be paying attention Subscribe to the podcast on SpotifyGoogle Podcast and Apple Podcast now. 

Prefer to read than listen? Check out the transcript of this episode here

Listening for the first time? Catch up on season one here


Walid Hejazi is a professor of economic analysis and policy at the Rotman School of Management.