John Hull's Web Site

 

Selected Working Papers and Publications since 1994

 

Forecasting Using Text-Based Uncertainty Measures. 2023, Working Paper with Kevin Benson, Yoshio Nozawa, Zissis Poulos, Vasely Strela, and Yuntao Wu.

 

A Variational  Autoencoder Approach to Conditional Generation of Possible Future Volatility Surfaces. 2023, Working Paper with Jacky Chen, Zissis Poulos, Haris Rasul, Andreas Veneris,,and Yuntao Wu.

 

Narrative Monetary Policy Uncertainty. 2023, Working Paper with Charles Martineau, Zissis Poulos, Yuntao Wu, Cameron Thompson, Maryam Haghighi, and Jun Yuan.

 

Hedging Barrier Options Using Reinforcement Learning. Working Paper 2023 (with Jacky Chen, Yu Fu, Zissis Poulos, Zeyu Wang, and Jun Yuan)

 

Gamma and Vega Hedging Using Deep Distributional Reinforcement Learning, Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence. Section: Artificial Intelligence in Finance, Vol 6, doi: 10.3389/frai.2023.1129370 (with Jay Cao, Jacky Chen, Soroush Farghadani, Zissis Poulos, Zeyu Wang, and Jun Yuan).

 

Why has Black-Scholes-Merton Been So Successful? Wilmott, May 2023

 

Deep Learning for Exotic Option Valuation, Journal of Financial Data Science, Winter 2022, 4 (1): 41-53 (with Jay Cao, Jacky Chen, and Zissis Poulos).

 

Autoencoders: A Hands Off Approach to Volatility, Journal of Financial Data Science, Spring 2022, 4 (2): 125-138  (with Maxime Bergeron, Nicholas Fung, Zissis Poulos, and Andreas Veneris)

 

Deep Hedging of Derivatives Using Reinforcement Learning, Journal of Financial Data Science, Winter 2021, 3 (1): 10-27 with Jay Cao, Jacky Chen, and Zissis Poulos

 

A Neural Network Approach to Understanding Implied Volatility Movements, Quantitative Finance, 20,9 (2020): 1405-1413 (with Jay Cao and Jacky Chen)

 

Funding Long Shots

Journal Of Investment Management, 17, 4 (2019): 1-33 (with Andrew Lo and Roger Stein)

 

Interest Rate Trees: Extensions and Applications

Quantitative Finance, 18, 7 (2018): 1199-1209, with Alan White

 

Optimal Delta Hedging for Options

Journal of Banking and Finance, 82 (September 2017): 180-190 (with Alan White)

 

XVAs: A Gap Between Theory and Practice

Risk, 29, 5 (May 2016): 50-52

 

How Are the New Rules for OTC Derivatives Working?

Editorial, Journal of Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Autumn/Fall 2015

 

Multi-Curve Modeling Using Trees

In Innovations in Derivatives Markets, Editors: Kathrin Glau, Zorana Grbac, Matthias Scherer, and Rudi Zagst, Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, 2016: 171-189. (with Alan White)

 

The Changing Landscape for Derivatives

Journal of Financial Engineering, Vol 1, No. 3 (2014): 1-8

 

Modeling the Short Rate: The Real and Risk Neutral Worlds

Published in Risk, October 2014, 59-63 with title “Short Rate Joint Measure Models” (with Alexander Sokol and Alan White)

 

A Generalized Procedure for Building Trees for the Short Rate and its Application to Determining Market Implied Volatility Functions

Quantitative Finance, Vol. 15, No. 3 (2015): 443-454 (with Alan White)

 

OIS Discounting, Interest Rate Derivatives,  and the Modeling of Stochastic Interest Rate Spreads

Journal Of Investment Management, Vol. 13, No. 1, (2015):  64-83 (with Alan White)

 

The Valuation of Market-Leveraged Stock Units

Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Spring 2014) 85-90  (with Alan White)

 

Valuing Derivatives: Funding Value Adjustments and Fair Value

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol 70, No. 3 (May/June 2014): 46-56 (with Alan White).

 

Collateral and Credit Issues in Derivatives Pricing

Journal of Credit Risk, Vol. 10, No. 3 (2014): 3-28 (with Alan White).

 

The FVA Debate

Risk, 25th anniversary edition, July 2012, 83-85 (with Alan White)

 

The FVA Debate Continued

Risk, Vol 10, October 2012, 52 (with Alan White)

 

CCPs, Their Risks, and How They Can Be Reduced

Journal of Derivatives, 20, 1 (Fall 2012), 26-29

 

LIBOR vs. OIS: The Derivatives Discounting Dilemma

Journal Of Investment Management, Vol. 11, No. 3, (2013), 14-27 (with Alan White)

 

CVA and Wrong Way Risk

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 68, No. 5 (Sept/Oct 2012) 58-69 (with Alan White)

 

Ratings Arbitrage and Structured Products

Journal of Derivatives, 20, 1 (Fall 2012), 80-86   (with Alan White)

 

OTC Derivatives and Central Clearing: Can All Transactions Be Cleared

Financial Stability Review, 14 (July 2010), pp 71-80

 

The Risk of Tranches Created from Mortgages

Financial Analysts Journal, 66, 5 (Sept/Oct 2010), 54-67  (with Alan White)

 

An Improved Implied Copula Model and its Application to the Valuation of Bespoke CDO Tranches

Journal of Investment Management, 8, 3 (2010), 11-31 (with Alan White)

 

The Valuation of Correlation-Dependent Credit Derivatives Using a Structural Model

Journal of Credit Risk, 6, 3 (Fall 2010), 99-132 (with Mirela Predescu and Alan White)

 

The Credit Crunch of 2007: What Went Wrong? Why? What Lessons Can Be Learned

Journal of Credit Risk, 5, 2 (2009), 3-18.

 

Dynamic Models of Portfolio Credit Risk: A Simplified Approach

Journal of Derivatives, 15, 4 (Summer 2008) pp 9-28 (with Alan White)

 

Volatility Surfaces: Theory, Rules of Thumb, and Empirical Evidence

Quantitative Finance, 7, 5 (October 2007), pp 507-524 (with Toby Daglish and Wulin Suo)

 

Forward and European Options on CDO Tranches

Journal of Credit Risk, Vol 3, No 2 (Summer 2007), 63-73 (with Alan White)

 

Valuing Credit Derivatives Using an Implied Copula Approach

Journal of Derivatives, 14, 2 (Winter 2006) pp 8-28 (with Alan White)

 

Bond Prices, Default Probabilities, and Risk Premiums

Journal of Credit Risk, Vol 1, No. 2 (Spring 2005), 53-60 (with Mirela Predescu and Alan White)

Valuation of a CDO and nth to Default CDS Without Monte Carlo Simulation

Journal of Derivatives,12, 2 (Winter 2004) pp 8-23 (with Alan White)

 

Merton's Model, Credit Risk, and Volatility Skews

Journal of Credit Risk Vol 1, No 1 (2004) pp 1-27 (with Izzy Nelken and Alan White)

 

The Relationship Between Credit Default Swap Spreads, Bond Yields, and Credit Rating Announcements

Journal of Banking and Finance, 28 (Nov. 2004) pp 2789-2811 (with Mirela Predescu and Alan White)

 

Accounting for Employee Stock Options: A Practical Approach to Handling the Valuation Issues:

Journal of Derivatives Accounting, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2004), pp 3-9. (with Alan White)

 

How to Value Employee Stock Options

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 60, No. 1, January/February 2004, 114-119 (with Alan White)

 

The Valuation of Credit Default Swap Options

Journal of Derivatives, 10, 3 (Spring 2003) pp. 40-50 (with Alan White)

 

A Methodology for Assessing Model Risk and its Application to the Implied Volatility Function Model,

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 37, No. 2, (June 2002), pp 297-318 (with Wulin Suo)

 

The General Hull-White Model and SuperCalibration

Financial Analysts Journal, 57, 6, (Nov-Dec) 2001 (with Alan White)

 

Valuing Credit Default Swaps II: Modeling Default Correlations,

Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 8, No. 3, (Spring 2001), pp. 12-22 (with Alan White)

 

Valuing Credit Default Swaps I: No Counterparty Default Risk,.

Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 8, No. 1, (Fall 2000), pp. 29-40 (with Alan White)

 

Forward Rate Volatilities, Swap Rate Volatilities, and the Implementation of the LIBOR Market Model,

Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 10, No. 3 (Sept 2000), pp 46-62 (with Alan White)

 

Incorporating Volatility Updating into Value at Risk Calculations,

Journal of Risk, Vol. 1, No. 1, (Fall 1998), pp. 5-19 (with Alan White)

 

Value at Risk When Daily Changes are Not Normally Distributed,

Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 5, No. 3, (Spring 1998), pp. 9-19 (with Alan White)

 

Using Hull-White Interest Rate Trees,

Journal of Derivatives, Vol. 3, No. 3, (Spring 1996), pp. 26-36 (with Alan White)

 

Numerical Procedures for Implementing Term Structure Models I: Single-Factor Models

Journal of Derivatives, Fall 1994, pp. 7-16 (with Alan White)

 

Numerical Procedures for Implementing Term Structure Models II: Two-Factor Models

Journal of Derivatives, Winter 1994, pp. 37-48 (with Alan White)